Story by Razaq Adedeji Jimoh, Toyo C. Ngem & Hakeeb Omoyosi
COULD SANWO-OLU BE PLANNING A REPEAT OF 2015 INCUMBENT FACE OFF WITH TINUBU OVER THE CHOICE OF NEXT GOVERNOR IN LAGOS
In the previous part of this story, posers were raised as to why Hon Mudasiru Obasa, Speaker of the Lagos House of Assembly, would want to kill the Lagos local council development areas (LCDAs)? This was because, as also acknowledged in that piece, he seemed to be the one wholesomely blamed for the intrigues that played out with the Assembly Bill prospecting to stop elections of chairman and councilors into the political offices of the LCDAs. The LCDAs have been roundly acknowledged to be among the interesting legacies President Tinubu left behind as governor of Lagos State he pioneered in this democracy.
In a series of rejoinders Civics Weekly received as perspective answers to the question of Obasa’s game with the LCDAs, the varying opinions converged on the prospect of his (Obasa’s) interest to contest for the governorship seat in 2007 as the informing one. Pastor Adewebi Oloyede, possibly speaking from offshore territory, said for example: “Obasa too wants to become governor”. Another reader said: “It’s a game of 2027 in which the Speaker might want to throw his hat into the ring”. Another response from Mr. Henry Ijamide read: “Obasa has given the answer by himself when the Governor presented 2025 Appropriation Bill before the State Assembly. At least he confronted the Governor that he was equally qualified to be the state governor”.
On the coming of President Tinubu to Lagos, the news to make the rounds was his purported scolding of Obasa for what was termed “disrespect to the governor”. A mainstream media that spearheaded the reportage said it followed a formal complaint of the GAC chairman on the issue. In contrast, however, as Civics Weekly found out, this did not seem to be the whole truth and whole story to the killing of the killer Assembly Bill for the LCDAs. The truth was rather the President coming home to undo the knot his original plan for local governments in Lagos had tied into power tango in the state. This speaks to the initial plan of President Tinubu to lay the foundation of participatory internal democracy to be pioneered from Lagos effective with this 2025 local government elections to come. But along that was also his consciousness of who would be the next governor of the state to succeed Sanwo-Olu in 2027. These two issues, according to investigations, appeared to be the undertow of the Assembly’s action. Accordingly, as a section of party members posited, Obasa had indeed been playing out President Tinubu’s script. And it could not have been out of place to see them as a message back home that while in Abuja, the President still holds the commanding height of governance in Lagos of his origin.
But in distinct opinion of this magazine, which underscored the direction of its investigations, it is worth to note that it takes two to tango. And every tango is a significant pointer to a conflict of interests. Therefore, to accuse Obasa of acting in self-interest, another logical question would deem to have been raised as to what could have been the antagonizing interest of his opposition in the ‘cold war?’ And going by some media reports that came out from the visitation of President Tinubu to Lagos, the Head of Executive arm, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, was identified to be his opponent. Thus the question in emphasis: ‘what could have been Sanwo-Olu’s conflict of interest with Obasa’s governorship aspiration (as thoughtfully assumed by many)?
Those who followed the stalemate that trailed the appointment of State Cabinet members after the 2023 elections would easily understand the Obasa’s Lagos Assembly as a potential tool for restraining Sanwo-Olu executive’s tendencies to excess in his rounding up as a second term governor. Such tendencies could, and almost the foremost, be a wish to slip into a game of succession planning with the establishment. That it could not be out of place “seeing Sanwo-Olu working towards installing his own successor”, a source said.
Investigations in pursuit of all this answer rather came out with a revelation that Obasa could as well be dancing to a drum beat being played from the Presidency, as sources from within and outside the party implied by their contributions. A party chieftain in Ifako/Ijaiye particularly wondered why those who accused Obasa of working for his interest of governorship ambition failed to understand that one of the topmost interest of every second term governor is to succeed in handpicking or have a greater influence in the choice of his successor. According to him, it is the “tradition” he did not think Sanwo-Olu might want to voluntarily depart from.
He said: “When people accuse Speaker Obasa of playing politics of self-interest in governorship ambition, they are only looking to one direction, forgetting that Governor Sanwo-Olu could as well be playing the politics of self-interest in plan to install his own successor come 2027”.
This is one observation no keen followers of Lagos politics would want to dismiss with a wave of the hand. Those, who argued along this line of thought were quick to point a good case study in Sanwo-Olu’s penultimate predecessor, Barrister Babatunde Raji Fashola, who chose to challenge his benefactor to a bout of who would be his successor in 2015. It was not a tea party as Civics Weekly (then operating as The Colloquium) reported the era. As then departing governor, Fashola chose to back Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, his Commissioner for works, to succeed him. Of course, he was acknowledged to be exercising his right of incumbency power in line with the tradition of Nigeria politics in vogue. Doing so was even considered to be an audacious affront not only to his benefactor leader, Asiwaju Tinubu, but extendedly to the Lagos aborigine locals – Lagos indigenes as it were.
The parade of aspirants included the Akinwunmi Ambode, who was a former Account General of the state and favourite candidate of Tinubu; Right Hon Adeyemi kuforiji, Speaker of the House at the time; Gbenga Ashafa; Hakeem Alobo; Dr. Leke Pitan, all from the Lagos East and being indigenes of Epe. Others who were also readily acknowledged to be indigene of Lagos Awori from Mushin of Lagos West Senatorial District included Senator Ganiyu Solomon and Muiz Banire. By implication however, Dr Hamzat stood out as the odd one whose non-indigeneship of Lagos could have been clearly pronounced by the coronation of his father, Alhaji Olatunji Hamzat, as a monarch in Ewekoro, Ogun State. Although, a research work by this magazine seemed to show that he could have a serum of Lagos indigeneship in his blood volume afterall. But besides this, he had been operating and deemed to belong to Lagos West, which in the fairness of zoning arrangement in Tinubu’s dairy of political equity was not yet in turn for the governorship seat in rotation.
Those following the trend of events at the time would not fail to appreciate that the battle with incumbency power to install the next governor after Fashola was another grievous leadership challenge Tinubu would be having in three straight successful election cycles. The first was in 2007 when he decided to work for a change in the ruling of Lagos from the control of politicians to technocrat. The Fashola in question became beneficiary of the success of that risky adventure. The second was in 2011 when he would yet be challenged whether to keep Fashola in power or replace him. Now in 2015 the beneficiary of these two previous challenges would yet be his challenger to power tussle over who would install the next governor. And just as he lost some loyal disciples in the 2007 case, so he lost one of his foremost young political turks – Muiz Banire – whose grievance was his opposition to Tinubu’s idea of zoning.
But not a few political analysts believed that Banire really squared up to Tinubu on merit of his belief in open field race. It was presumed, albeit in clarity of fact, that he chose to spite Tinubu more out of his thoughtful waning of Tinubu’s popularity, following the 2012 Ondo State governorship election in which Rotimi Akeredolu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) was perceived to have lost to the incumbent Governor Segun Mimiko on account of Tinubu’s support. In tow of that, but the worse, was the 2014 Ekiti governorship election in which, unfortunately, the highly acknowledged performing incumbent governor kayode Fayemi also lost to the least expected Ekiti’s political liability opposition candidate, Ayodele Fayose of the PDP – and it was also blamed on Tinubu’s dwindling political relevance.
To this extent, not a few political pundits also believed that Fashola’s initiated battle of leadership contest with Tinubu could not have departed from this emerging order of Tinubu’s seeming approach to his political wit end. The winner of the contest would ultimately be determined by who among them produced the governor of Lagos State after Fashola. So, it was no brainer that Fashola could have even been pushing this implicit conflict with Tinubu in fierce audacity on the latitude of his now popularity attained as a performing governor. This inverse correlation of his own fame to the “dwindling” fame of his benefactor leader would yet be heightened by deriding view of “political godfather” now held in highly disdainful perception of the public – but only in so far it was Tinubu among many others acting in like manner across the country.
All this underscored the spirit of the time, appearing so pathetic to draw the sympathetic emotion of a section of the public who believed Tinubu could not have deserved such from someone he had done so much for. Dapo Thomas, for example, wrote: “While I did not intend to deny him (Fashola) the right to give his support to whoever he desires, I will only admonish him to tread softly. There is no need to create fresh tension between him and Tinubu. As the symbolic leader of the country’s progressives and a major financier of the APC, Tinubu should be given the privilege of having a major input in who becomes the APC candidate, and in fact, who becomes the next governor of the state. For now, it will be a great honor to Tinubu if Lagos State becomes his operational base and political stronghold (in plan to stabilize the quest for the country’s opposition democracy) – parenthesis ours.
This experience, as a source said, could have a reason for the Obasa’s Assembly to be vigilant in watch over every move of Governor Sanwo-Olu, especially when it comes to local government elections, which is another means a second term governor always want to use to perpetuate their power base after leaving office.
Those who spoke in support of Sanwo-Olu however argued that he was highly loyal to the President and he would not want to be caught with a knife to backstab him. They also said the Governor was “not a materialistic man” and coupled with his humility and integrity with which he secured the confidence of party leaders for his second term, he could not have been interested in contesting the choice of his successor with the party’s substantive leader, President Tinubu.
But this line of the governor’s defence was swiftly faulted with the case of commissioner-nominees, which pitched the Assembly against the Governor at the beginning of this second term. A party chieftain said: “Don’t forget that Sanwo-olu disappointed these party leaders almost across the state immediately he got his second term mandate. Virtually all the commissioner nominees he presented to the Assembly were strangers to the party. If he had been in control of the state assembly, he would surely get away with his plan for whatever reason he did it. I would think he possibly tried that because he thought Tinubu had gone to Abuja and he might no longer be interested in politics of Lagos. And don’t forget, it was the Assembly that succeeded in holding him to ransom until the corrections were made”.
Another party source used the case of Alimosho to prove the case that Governor Sanwo-Olu worked at variance to President Tinubu’s interest. And the President “scolded” him for it. He said: “Take the case of Alimosho for example, he had appointed his preferred commissioner for the local Government before he was forced to change it. That happened only when on one of his visit to Abuja, the President accused him of doing his own government: ‘ngbo won ni se lo n da’joba ara e se leko bayi’, the President reportedly accused him”.
In conclusion of the majority, therefore, Obasa’s actions were indeed a dance to the drum beat of President Tinubu’s interest. “For example”, as another source put it, “the Assembly deliberately delayed the passing of LASIEC nominees’ list in order to ensure that they had the blessings of Tinubu before the contents were passed”.
However it may be viewed, the Lagos State governance may have become a practical pacesetter in the in the practice of separation of powers between the Assembly and the Executive, which is broadly acknowledged to be the be
drock of true democracy. If only the people of Lagos would have this benefit well extended to the Judiciary, the best of democratic government would have evolved in the state. But then, what was the original plan of President Tinubu for the coming Local Government Elections in the state? Revelation of the Secret of the Shindig over the LCDA law amendment you never knew continues
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